Archive for December, 2009

Can you hear me NOW?

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What about NOW?

Ever felt annoyed hearing the person on the subway or at the table next to you say this into their cell phone? Ultimately, talking on cell phones in public places has become a shunned activity, but I’ve always wondered why this is so annoying to us?

In pondering this question, I’ve come up with two possible explanations:

The first is that we can’t hear the whole conversation. When people talk in public, we eavesdrop, even if not intentionally. We hear the statement and the response — all is well. When someone is talking into a cell phone, it creates a mental hole in the conversation. Mental holes are things that draw our attention and so even when we don’t want to, our brain continues to seek answers to questions that we will never be answered. This makes it very hard for us to ignore and pay attention to something else. Moreover, at random times, some person next to you starts saying something to no one in particular, drawing our attention only to see a blue light blinking from their ear. As one of my friends told me, it’s getting a lot harder to tell the mentally ill from the normal people in San Francisco, since someone talking agitatedly to themselves may just be talking into a bluetooth headset.

The second is that it creates artificial entries into an environment that break the illusion of connectedness and solidarity that groups of people otherwise have. I think this is a minor effect compared to the first, and perhaps is related to it. We don’t feel like we belong in the conversation or are being excluded. It starts to break the group up and we don’t like this intrusion into our space.

There are analogies to this in the business or relationship world.  If our interactions with them feel as though we are talking to no one in particular or are posing questions by our actions that are never resolved, we not only don’t connect to our customers, we disenfranchise them.

Perhaps there are other reasons why this is annoying, I’d be interested in your feedback. If you have ideas, leave a comment below.

Rowers and Sailors: Two Types of Startups

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More often then not, entrepreneurial enterprises get lumped together as all the same. We speak of entreprenuers which includes people who start restaurants, new retail stores, or web 2.0 companies. While we often recognize the difference between companies that “can scale” (like software) with companies that can not (consultant services, stores, etc), we seldom consider the differences in people that these businesses require.

A non-scalable company is like a rowboat. It takes people with perseverance, strength, direction, and determination to move the row boat where it needs to go. These businesses require a daily grind that has to happen over and over again, but in many ways, they are in control of their destiny. This isn’t to say that people don’t get in leaky boats to begin with, or run out of strength halfway in between, or miss a hurricane coming their way. But assuming the mission is well thought out and well executed, they can make a lucrative living.

A scalable company is more like a sailboat with a small motor engine. The goal is to find the trade winds and  sail around the world. In order to get there, they require fuel (typically in the form of venture funding) that allows them to time to both figure out where the winds are strongest, to follow the slightest breeze and then navigate their sail to take full advantage. This requires a lot of similar traits to rowing, but you’re trying to leverage your own effort into something much bigger. The cost is that you are somewhat at the mercy of the wind. You have to be agile enough to shift the sails quickly as you pick up on the wind, and to try different strategies quickly, though not without thought. Too much change of the sails and you’re dead in the water too. Since much depends on external factors, there is greater risk and greater reward.

Ultimately, these two types of entreprenuerial enterprises require different types of people. The rowers need to be steady, solid, and strong in their rowing. The sailors need to be scrappy, failing quickly, and  always learning  to find the right configuration of the sail before the gas is gone.

Corporate Welfare and The Motivated Bureaucrat

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A related problem to the green fuzz of government debt-based spending, is the nature of accountability in the government. Here is what happens: the government decides to take on a social project, or perhaps is already owning a certain business (as in the case of socialist governments becoming less so). The argument is that government is not well equipped to deal with running large social programs because of the lack of incentives for those running them. Both non-profit and for-profit private enterprises have a greater sense of incentives for making sure things are run right (though there can obviously be excesses and irresponsibility in both). The incentive tends to go beyond money.  There is something at risk if they don’t perform as they have promised to those who care.  Yes, the government bureaucrat at the top is elected, but those appointed deeper down in the government have little at risk.

As a result, there is a push to privatize a part of what the government is doing. This amounts to paying a private entity to do the function that previously the government was doing. The problem of course is that the incentive to run things more efficiently doesn’t change. A genuine private entity has something to lose (customer loyalty or donor loyalty), but when the government is footing the bill the risk of lose is gone. In other words, you’ve simply shifted the bureaucrat with nothing to lose from a government employee to ones in the private sector.  There is no shift in their desire to perform differently.

Enter moral hazard in a whole new way. The new entities end up serving themselves and trying to take as much as they possibly can in the process.

In spite of being  in favor of reduced government spending and programs, I don’t think the way to do that is to outsource them. Even in the bidding processes that try to create competition for things, you are still relying on the judgement of bureaucrats that didn’t have the right set of incentives to run it themselves. While I don’t full agree with Naomi Klein’s conclusions in “The Shock Doctrine”, it does very well outline that privatizing government does not create a proper sense of incentives that cause companies to work for common good (and is worth reading).

In the end, the government should unwind from it’s positions but in a way that enables private entities to both take on the risks that are associated with those things.

The Green Fuzz on Government Debt

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Ever opened a tupperware in the refrigerator and wondered if something was still good. Then decide you weren’t sure you wanted to eat it now, and put it back in case you decide different later. This process gets repeated several times until nature in the form of green fuzz makes the final decision for you.

The same is true with the current state of government spending. For decades, we look at the debt and consider tackling it only to decide, we’ll figure it out later. When times are tough, our politicians want to pour money into shovel-ready projects, thereby putting money back into the economy. If on the other hand, we pay the debt down, we take money out of the economy. This effectively slows a boom period and what politician wants to mediate prosperity.

We got our answer when George W. Bush sent taxpayers cash back due to the US Treasury’s surplus of income earlier this decade. Just like the leftovers, we decided to wait for a “better time” to eat the debt. For this reason, I laugh when I hear about how we are leaving the debt to our children as though our children are suddenly going to take an action that we shied away from. It is true that we pass the burden of the clean up to them, but they likely won’t clean it up until the debt is covered in a green fuzz that jumps out and bites us.

And by then, do we think somehow our outcome will really be different than what occurred recently to the loss of confidence in large wall street banks?  Who is going to bail out the US Government?

Shibboleth Question

You arrive in a conference room dressed to impress. Sitting across the table is Bob and you’re trying to explain to Bob, someone you’ve never met, why this product would help him. In the middle of the explanation, he interrupts you and says:

Yeah, I know all about this field, just skip to the conclusion

QuestionPathSmDo you believe him?

You decide to trust him at his word, and skip to the end about what your product does. Now Bob starts peppering you with questions that indicate, he really knows almost nothing about this field. Your opportunity to start with a story and provide the background needed to understand why your widget is the best ever is now lost.

But, suppose you decide not to believe him and continue on anyway. Now Bob thinks you think he’s stupid. Good luck closing the sale.

Nobody wants to feel stupid, at the same time, sizing up someone’s actual competence after they claim to have perfect knowledge can be a big challenge. We need some quick ways to decide how to continue in these situations.

It reminds me of a Bible passage (Judges 12:5-6) that also appeared as a West Wing episode at one time:

The Gileadites captured the fords of the Jordan leading to Ephraim, and whenever a survivor of Ephraim said, “Let me cross over,” the men of Gilead asked him, “Are you an Ephraimite?” If he replied, “No,” they said, “All right, say ‘Shibboleth.’ ” He said, “Sibboleth,” because he could not pronounce the word correctly, they seized him and killed him at the fords of the Jordan. (NIV)

Okay, so in times of war, it doesn’t matter if the other person catches you in their lie. At the same time, it seems that asking several questions that side track the matter can help you assess the credentials and lead the conversation down a path that will be most fruitful.

For example, “That’s great, I’m glad to hear that. Can you help me understand some of the challenges that you see in the market?”. Every company that has to deal with this kind of situation regularly, should come up with a Shibboleth Question.

Changing your Reputation

Crea fama y eschate a dormir

Literally, “Create fame and lay down to sleep”. After about 30 minutes of Tea Bog Beet Knee explanations, I finally understood the use of this expression in Spanish and will hopefully be more successful in explaining it here (with fewer words :D ).

Essentially, once you have created your fame — your reputation — there is little you can do to change it.  Actions you take that attempt to change it are about as effective as laying down to sleep.

ReputationSmAn earlier entry talked about the importance of first impressions, but your reputation is the sum of the early impressions.  The subsequent impressions have less and less effect on the total.  They refine, they don’t change.

Because we have a tendency to look for information that agrees with our assessments (we are heavily biased to believe and remember data that confirms our hypothosises rather than conflicts with them), it becomes difficult for us to chnage our impressions of people.

This can be both good and bad.  If you build a solid reputation for delivering on your commitments or for creating great results, missteps are forgiven and forgotten.  If, however, your fame is of ill repute, even little missteps are amplified when you decide to change.  It can be easier to start over with a new group of people than to continue trying to change the minds of those around you.

It also means that we need to force ourselves to reconsider previous conclusions about people and relationships. Do you have an employee that has grown a great deal in your organization?  Are you evaluating them still through the lenses of them as a beginner or are you able to see them as a new person would? When someone is not performing, and you work with them to improve their performance, are you able to set aside the opinion you had earlier and to be objective?

Both counts are hard, but you can lose loyal talented employees if you aren’t trying to force yourself to change.

Reputations have inertia and can’t change in and of themselves.  The require people who have judged the reputation to force themselves to reevaluate.

Frustrating Your Own Goals

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When we had a number of guests (19 people in all) over to our home during Thanksgiving this year, I observed a very interesting phenomenon:

Our house is made of concrete walls and tile floors.  The result is that sound carries quite well.  Obviously, with all of the people there were multiple conversations that were going on simultaneously.  This created an arms race of sorts.  One group would start laughing about something and the other group would raise their voices to talk over the sound.  When the first group stopped laughing, they now had to talk louder to be heard over the other group.  This would continue to the point of almost everyone speaking at very high volume.  This became most obvious when focus was shifted to making an announcement.  One person would talk and this would created a full reset and everyone started off talking in normal voices to each other (everyone could hear and no one was losing their voice).

I found this whole situation very interesting.  Every person is doing the most rational thing (speaking loud enough to be heard as opposed to telling the other people to shut up).  However, this very rational act leads to the opposite of it’s goal — no one is able to hear.  This kind of thing happens all of the time – consider a story I read where an infant was grabbing it’s own ear until it started hurting, this made the infant upset and so they started crying and grabbing harder, leading to a downward spiral.  As adults, we dismiss this as silly, yet how often do we make decisions without fully understanding how our actions end up thwarting the very goal we are trying to accomplish.  Food for thought….

Moral Hazard in Startups

Dollar Funnel
If you’ve followed the news regarding the government bailout of large corporations, you’ve probably heard of “Moral Hazard” — a term used to describe that when you mitigate the risk or take away the consequences of bad decisions, those who took the risks to begin with will take even more risks. This concept extends well beyond the bailouts to our everyday lives.  For example, the spoiled teenager whose parents always step in to take away the consequences of the teenager’s errors.  This causes the teen to act in increasingly more risky ways, knowing that the consequences will be covered.

This same concept applies to startups. Working for a startup requires risking a number of things for the possibility of a great success.  As such, this risk forces focus and drives the startup to find the right market and create a business.  Back in the golden years of internet startups, companies were being thrown 10’s of millions of dollars for simply having a good idea. This allowed the team to continue working on “product ideas that are cool” rather than figuring out how to make money.  They felt okay about “investing” way too much on the work environment (e.g. stories of branded china in the company cafeteria), but this significantly shortens their runway.  Effectively, it shortens it to the point that they really start taking action once they start feeling the heat of running out of capital.  They find a way to return to their “risk” threshold.

Essentially, if you put too much capital into a company that can not make use of it effectively, you create moral hazard for the startup.

However, the flip side must be avoided as well.  If you put too little capital, it changes the psyche of the people running the company.  There becomes too much focus on saving money and too much concern spent focusing on avoiding the crash rather than focusing on the right goal.  Succeeding in a startup requires risky decisions not significant risk aversion.  Along these lines,  A Venture Capitalist friend of mine once said that they teach pilots who are in trouble to stay focused on where to land (i.e. how to succeed), not to focus on avoiding the trees reaching out to grab them.  Focus on the trees and soon your plane will meet one. For a startup to succeed, they must remained focused on the business and how to make effective use of the capital they have toward that end.

Either gorging or starving  a company hurts both the investor and the company.